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  • Vishesh Agarwal

The Civil War in Brewing: A Venezuelan Story

Image Source: Reuters 


In Venezuela, thousands of people have protested in the streets against what they claim to be President Nicolas Maduro's rigged election victory. The National Electoral Council (CNE) recognized Maduro, who achieved a third six-year term in office. Conversely, supporters of Maduro's party are rejoicing at the opposition's abortive attempts to rig the polls. Venezuela has come to a standstill with both sides on the streets; thus, it's critical to comprehend the events that could spark a future civil war. 


Since Hugo Chávez passed away in 2013, Maduro has been in charge and has carried on "Chavismo," the left-wing populist philosophy that bears the late leader's name. Conversely, the opposition movement is cohesive and has overcome divides to establish a coalition. In a nation in such poor economic circumstances that around 8 million Venezuelans have gone abroad, its energizing campaign inspired hope among a disillusioned public yearning for change. Former diplomat Edmundo Gonzalez, the opposition’s candidate, took over after the well-supported center-right candidate Maria Corina Machado was disqualified from running due to claims that she had omitted certain food vouchers from her asset declaration. The opposition's campaign revolved around the economy, corruption, and democracy.   


There were numerous allegations of anomalies in the vote-counting process. The opposition claimed that the electoral authority had stopped more votes from being processed and that some of its witnesses had been denied entry to polling places where votes were being counted. According to government and CNE reports, Edmundo Gonzalez, the opposition candidate, received 44% of the vote, while Maduro received 51%. In contrast, the opposition, lead by Maria Corina Machado, asserted that they had access to over 73 percent of the tabulation sheets, which indicated that Gonzalez had received over 6 million votes and Maduro had received 2.7 million.


Voters in Venezuela cast their ballots using electronic devices, which also print a paper receipt displaying the candidate of their choice. Before departing the polls, voters are supposed to place these receipts into voting boxes. Each machine prints a tally sheet with the names of the candidates and the total number of votes cast when the polls shut. Through the CNE and an extensive network of local party coordinators, the ruling party maintains strict control over the voting process. According to Venezuelan legislation, members of the opposition parties must be allowed to observe the voting procedure, count the votes, and—above all—obtain a copy of the final tally sheet directly from the voting machines. In essence, the opposition alleges data manipulation because they could not see the impartiality of election procedures. They also allege hacking by a North Macedonian firm. 


With people being arrested everywhere and cities being flooded with armies, this has led many to believe that the situation in Venezuela could lead to a civil war, with many countries and NGOs expressing concerns. A more significant concern might be the further worsening of U.S. and EU sanctions that have severely damaged Venezuela's already fragile oil industry. At the same time, Maduro has overseen the country's economic collapse and mass migration out of Venezuela. A victory for Maduro would encourage more people to migrate out of Venezuela, which used to be the richest nation on the continent but has seen a third of its population depart in recent years.


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