Setting an example for good and ethical governance has been a task for Thailand’s judiciary this month. PM Srettha Thavasin was removed from office on August 14, creating a short period of domestic and international uncertainty. With a deeply polarized yet vibrant political culture, Thailand PM Srettha Thavisin, who is also a famous business tycoon, was forced to make a costly compromise over the appointment of former lawyer and convict Pichit Chuenban as a minister to his cabinet in April. A violation of ethical standards due to the appointment, as stated by the constitutional court, has now led to a repetition of the removal of Prime Ministers in the past, making Srettha the fourth Prime Minister in 16 years to be removed from office by a constitutional court ruling.
Moreover, this ruling came after the constitutional court dissolved the ‘Move Forward Party’ (MFP) on August 7 after its criticism of the monarchy and a move to reform the constitution. These rulings have, more importantly, put pro-democracy and progressive parties such as MFP and Srettha’s Pheu Thai under immense pressure, making reform take a backseat in a draconian and pro-monarchy political system.
After serving for a year as Prime Minister, Srettha was ultimately disappointed that the court ruling did not go in his favour and that he respected the verdict. The government, a coalition of pro-democracy parties and a few hardline conservative parties was thrown apart after an “ethical violation” that many previous Prime Ministers in Thailand had made before but was ignored by the court.
Replacements and the Economy:
Immediately after the ruling, the Thai parliament scrambled to find a replacement and prevent slipping into an aggravated political crisis, similar to the ones faced before. Eventually, former Prime Minister and billionaire Thaksin Shinawatra’s daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra was chosen by the Parliament on August 16 as she became the country’s youngest-ever and first female Prime Minister. Paetongtarn acknowledged the challenges that lie ahead for her and the government as the crisis has had its effects on the Thai economy, which has not been doing particularly well in 2024. After the ruling for the removal of the former Prime Minister, the Stock Exchange of Thailand index (SET) sank 17 points but made a short recovery by the end of the day. For obvious reasons, investor confidence seems to have taken a hit in the country, and the economic policies Srettha Thavisin had planned have stalled for the moment. Paetongtarn has a humongous task at hand with stabilising the economy and reducing the public debt, which stands at 64% for 2024.
Polarisation and Instability:
Another challenge mainly for the Pheu Thai party comes in the form of the newly created ‘People’s Party’. It certainly acts as the successor to the MFP and has plans to reform the military and the economy, showcasing a robust agenda for the 2027 elections in Thailand. With an already polarised political environment, Thailand will need to brace for extremely polarised discourses coming from both sides of the mix, where the involvement of ethnic backgrounds looks likely. So, what exactly will make Thailand an unstable nation in the coming years? An administration that protects the monarchy with prison sentences for its critics will surely not dedemocratise, right? Instability in Thailand would profoundly affect the regions of South and Southeast Asia, becoming a breeding ground for even more polarisation and ethnic violence.
This crisis represents changing political systems worldwide as they turn more volatile in environments where no leader’s office can ever be secure, and governments can come and go at the will of external actors rather than elections. In 2024, instability has already been seen in countries such as the United Kingdom, Venezuela, Haiti, Bangladesh, Sudan, and Congo, to name a few. Rising election fever combined with uncertainty and hostility has brought a tide of social unrest, which, in this case, can be seen in Thailand. As Paetongtarn navigates these treacherous waters, her ability to bridge these divides will be crucial in determining whether Thailand can achieve stability or if it will descend into further political turmoil involving the military.
Comments