Almost 20 months since Russia invaded Ukraine, it is important to note how people’s view of the war, which has predominantly taken place in Ukrainian territory, has changed. To understand the sheer scale of the war, it is important to note that the last time both these territories had lost these many people was during World War II. With the war coming nowhere close to its end, it is important to look at the war from the perspective of the people.
Since the early days of the invasion, Ukraine was believed to be dealt a shorthand. However, the long-awaited acceptance of the U.S. aid package hasn't stopped the combat prospects for Ukraine from being some of the worst. Most Ukrainians still have faith in their president and army, despite significant infrastructure destruction, territorial losses, and mounting dissatisfaction. It makes sense that the Ukrainian society would see the war as having a negative future. Nonetheless, the president continues to command over 65% of the populace's support. When asked what they believed to be the most likely conclusion of the war, 58% predicted a Ukrainian triumph, 30% predicted a settlement, and 1% predicted Russia would win. In the event that Western arms and ammunition supply rise, Ukrainians would be even more bullish; 69% believe Ukraine would prevail in such a scenario, while 22% anticipate a settlement. Almost 70% of Ukrainians believe that they should still join the European Union and NATO even though that was hailed as one of the major possibilities that forced Russians to invade.
In the European nations, there are low expectations for Kyiv's chances of winning the conflict. Few people outside of Ukraine believe that a Ukrainian triumph is the most likely conclusion, in contrast to public opinion. With the exception of Estonia, the majority believe that a compromise settlement will be reached at the end of the battle. Thus, when it comes to the conclusion of the war, Ukrainians symbolize political will while the European publics reflect the pessimism of the intellect. Even when respondents are asked to envision what may happen if Ukraine received more arms shipments, this skepticism does not much lessen. But in 11 of the 15 countries surveyed, a settlement is still viewed as the most likely result in such situations. Polling conducted for ECFR at the start of the conflict indicated that there were two broad opinion groupings in Europe: those who wanted the war to stop quickly (the "Peace camp") and those who wanted Ukraine to beat Russia (the "Justice camp"). In certain "Swing states," no side won. According to the most recent poll conducted by ECFR, these divisions are still in place: three nations are firmly located in the Peace camp; five nations are in the Justice camp; and six nations are in the middle.
Americans, who constitute majority of the foreign assistance provided to Ukrainians, believe increasingly that the United States is supporting Ukraine excessively(31%). Approximately equal proportions of American adults feel the United States is supporting Ukraine in an appropriate amount (25%) or insufficiently (24%) while 18% are unsure. Just after the invasion in March 2022, over four out of ten Americans (42%) felt that the United States was not supporting Ukraine enough. Since then, this share has dropped by almost 20 percentage points. In the meantime, the percentage of people believing that the United States is supporting Ukraine excessively increased from 7% in March 2022 to 31% in April 2024. A Pew research report found that the view in Congress has shifted from America is not giving enough aid to giving too much aid for Republicans whereas the other way round is the case for most Democrats. A little over half of Americans (48%) believe that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will make the right decisions in international affairs. This is an 8-point decline from 2023. Approximately 40% of people have little to no faith in him to act morally.
This shows how the optimism surrounding the war is rapidly fading elsewhere but rather slowly in Ukraine. With Ukraine on the counter-offensive and elections in major European nations along with the United States, future polls on this subject could give us insights into the future of the war.
Image Credits: The Financial Times
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